David L
نویسندگان
چکیده
Recent evidence suggests that nearly 25% of U.S. adults (47 million) suffer from some level of sleep deprivation. The impact of this sleep deprivation on the U.S. economy includes direct medical expenses related to sleep deprivation and related disorders, the cost of accidents, and the cost of reduced worker productivity. Sleep research has examined the effects of sleep deprivation on a number of performance measures, but the effects of sleep deprivation on decision-making under uncertainty are largely unknown. In this article, subjects perform a decision task (Grether, 1980) in both a well-rested and experimentally sleep-deprived state. Our data indicate that well-rested subjects display a tendency to overweight new information in forming subjective posterior probability estimates, which is inconsistent with Bayes rule and may indicate the use of a ‘representativeness’ heuristic. Ironically, the estimated decision model following sleep-deprivation is more consistent with the use of Bayes rule, perhaps indicating that Bayesian updating is a more basic decision process that remains intact when other processes are impaired. We also find that final-choice accuracy is not significantly affected by sleep deprivation. This is significant because it indicates that increased accident and error rates that result from reduced sleep in modern society may result more from a decline in auxiliary functions (e.g., slowed reaction time), rather than the inability to process new information. JEL
منابع مشابه
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David Lawrence Sackett, OC, MD, FRSC, FRCP was an American-Canadian physician, trialist, and teacher. He is best known as one of the pioneers of evidence-based medicine (EBM), which is arguably the most important movement in medicine over the past three decades. He founded the first clinical epidemiology department in McMaster University in Hamilton, Canada in 1967. In addition, he was the head...
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